-Bonifasius Trading-

Woh?? i sent it to you many many days …. weeksssss ago???

This global financial crisis is going to be bigger than 1998 asian financial crisis… MUCH BIGGER!

It is not a question of if the plane will crash , but how hard will it crash. Next year starting it is not a good year for anyone, not even for engineers, not for IT not for business or finance people especially. Last year, John and I agreed that It might be after US presidential election (Nov 2008) that the crash will start to happen, but It seems that they cannot hold it that longer. udah keburu ejakulasi dini istilahnya hahaha

There are a few sectors that will still grow,
1. renewable energy : solar, wind power, nuclear, and bio-fuel (because all those indian/ chinese coming out of village starting to realize that they want electricity + to produce more food and clothes and needs for those 2 billion people making transition to modern world)
2. Farm/Agriculture: Rice, soy bean, oil will remind quite steady because orang kampung start to taste how good the taste of KFC or fried food , they dont eat ikan kukus or ayam rebus anymore. they start realizing drinking soy bean and want to eat more toufu. and Rice taste better than Ubi or mantou hahaha…. so this thing will remain well.
3. Some Pharmaceutical: baby boomers (they who was born between 1940-1950, those baby was initially prepared for war , mother is making more kids because the country need them for world war. By now, they are about 50-60 years old, and they’ll retire soon. they wil need more medication. So with unhealthy diet that they are having now especially in US and europe, they need more medicine. so MORE MONEY for cancer , high cholesterol , etc etc

The rest,… Things will start to sound like this.
there are 3 kinds of major industries. Hulu, hilir and tengah.
a. hulu = perusahaan tambang, seperti BHP, ANTM, Exxon mobil, BP, Pertamina.
b. tengah = perusahaan pembuatan steel, seperti baosteel, buat besi batang lah, besi lempeng lah, besi baja dll
c. Hilir = perusahaan yang add value, car maker, bridge maker, computer casing maker , microwave/electronic maker

Nah, if the customers been hit and cannot pay their mortgage (tagihan utang rumah), start to feel the $4/gallon of oil is expensive, they’ll start reducing their needs. Plus, they see on the news top 5 of US investment firm , 4 goes bankcrupt. Jobless is high, they’ll start thinking, ok dont buy car…. ok dont buy new computer, ok dont buy this and that.
Kena hit the Hilir company (since last year, toyota, honda , GM and Ford has been reporting LOSS), now, rembet ke tengah….. and by next year, the hulu will be fucked too…

Why you didnt hear much in china and indonesia is because, indonesia is mostly perusahaan hulu. and china will feel it soon!, my friend in Gz start mentioning that the business start getting quiet. Stock market crash everywhere, in malaysia my friend said almost nobody on the shopping center.

For the rest… God speed!

Disclaimer:
Following post can be ‘extremely speculative’ and what my rant thought is not backed up with sufficient or any credible source or form of information.

It is convenient to blame the strengthening of US Dollar since people selling their equity or covering their short sell or liquidating asset to buy US$.
Question is,… American’s citizens keeps spending money like normal, the International trade company in Shandong Province in china I interviewed recently mentioned ‘ Business As Usual’, and they even cannot keep up with the demand lately. The US govt keeps printing the bond and the financial institution is falling like a fragile glass.
With the Approval of more than $700billion dollars to buy the trouble asset backed by the sub prime mortage, there is a likelihood that the asset is ‘over-valued’ to safe the falling value of the illiquid asset.
Where do they get the money from by the way? Again!, debt…. Which they will have to print MORE international bond.

HELLO!!, I thought with the more money a country issues the LOWER THE VALUE!????
Euro VS USD has breached below 1.4, and last night it was at 1.38 USD/Euro from 1.6 in the last 2 months????
Anyone want to try answering this question fundamentally?

Here is the speculation,… whatever they do,… China would more than likely to tell George W Bush, ‘Ai mate, … if you do not happen to know yet, we hold about $1.2trillion USD in your currency bond. That is equal to $1000/Chinese citizen. WE CAN PRACTICALLY FEED THE ENTIRE NATION FOR 2 YEARS ON THE BACK OF THE BOND ALONE! WITHOUT HAVING TO DO ANYTHING!
And FYI (for your informazione), your money has lost value with RenMinBi or Yuan more than 20% in the last 2 years. If you are offering 5% interest on it (which u kept cutting it down now BTW!!) , what is the point of me getting an interest of 10% in 2 years and losing 20% in value?
And with you printing this money again, keep lowering your interest rate, the value will keep getting lower! And come on,… I understand that you do help maintaining the appetite to buy our product, but this is a NO BRAIN.

So, may I speculate on the back of this? , ‘the value of USD is increasing lately in order to encourage the creditor country to allow US Govt to build a demand appetite for their ‘brand new’ shiny bond.’
So this is the speculation and (DISCLAIMER ON), ‘any country that can possible purchase that shiny new $700billion bail out bond, will see USD against it to increase in value’

I really regretted I did not notice this graph before. But there is no point of it.

Time to analyze it on the reason why I’d purchase the stock/ option of the stock if i’d have seen it

FMG (Fortescue Metal group), an Iron ore mining company that would rival RIO Tinto and BHP in Australia. BUY 18th Sept 2008

1.The trading volume has steadily increasing for the last 5 trading days.
2. On 16th Sept, there is a ‘false’ hammer candle stick on rising volume (slow) and on 18th the hammer reversal showing a significant change in volume increase despite a very bad day from US Market.
3. Watch stochastic from 11 and 17th of September. WHILE THE PRICE IS MAKING A LOWER LOW, THE STO INDICATOR IS MAKING A HIGHER LOW.
4. on 18th , while the price is suffering (hammer reversal), the STO is INCREASING!!!
5. Should purchase a little ,and if it is an up day the next day, BUY MORE

Some of my friends and family members is trading in JSX (indonesia stock exchange), KLSE and Shanghai stock exchange.

The most prominent and often question that is raised is that, since the market capitalisation is small and there are a lot of amateurs, the ‘market movers’ is often a big fund or the so called ‘Boss’. The title is often referred to someone/ an institution that has access to insider information, trying to manipulate the ’small fish’ psychology and drive them into taking a huge lost. 

Normally in these markets, the market regulator is weak and HELPLESS

the ‘boss’ is said is so powerful that it can ‘create’ and close the market and produce such a graph so tricky for any TA analyst. Dont ge me wrong…. I have seen such a graph that 90% of my indicator strongly suggesting a buy and without any news or anything, it just simply flunk 10% the next day!

So the question is,…… 

WHAT IS THE POINT OF TA IF THE GRAPH CAN BE MANIPULATED?

here is a quote I found in trendtrader.co.cc

Being wrong is acceptable. But staying wrong is totally unacceptable. Being wrong isn’t a choice, but staying wrong is. To play any game successfully, you have to have some skill, an edge, but beyond that it is money management. Good traders manage the downside; they don’t worry the upside. - MARK MINNERVINI

Should answer one question at a time =)

A while ago, when my OBV indicator had an issue, I tried on AD indicator. I should not overload myself with too much indicator or i would get confused, but briefly, just for the sake of understanding, I google it.

I chose the information tab from stockcharts.com and I found that the nature of this indicator is quite interesting.

Stockcharts gives complete explanation on how does it work and how can you apply it on your trading. 

The last picture is from my trading platform of AMAT (APPLIED MATERIAL)

Oerlikon and AMAT is currently the only manufacturing with turnkey solution for thin film Solar PV cell.

As you can see, often OBV and AD indicator moves on a different direction.

I’d talk more on this after i get a better grip on the indicator.

1. ER (Energy Renaissance)
If the last 20 years have been the age of IT (information technology), the future will be for ER. It is slow, it is infant but if China keep saying ‘American has 100 years to pollute the world, this is our time, let us be’, Anyone…. Any country, Any companies who own the technology will have the leveraged , just like How iT is so unavoidable, no-man can avoid clean energy.

There are a few candidates, and I will cross out bio-energy due to the rising cost of food:

a. Solar
The point of having a solar power is to get the panel so SO SO very cheap and higher in efficiency plus better performance under a cloudy sky! I would envision a city like singapore/dubai or HK in which the solar panels blanket 3 Dimensional space on BIPV. Clearly, installing it on the rooftop or building a solar farm is wasting a lot of space and impractical. But Imagine that Solar cell is so efficient, so SO cheap that they can afford to blanket the whole building wall (with great colour pigmentation), windows and the rooftop. Where the integrated panel can be easily removed (once it reaches an un-acceptable efficiency) to be then sold somewhere else or replaced with a new layer.

The race against $1/Wp cost barrier is achievable according to Oerlikon solar by 2010 in 1Gw production plant. But, by 2008 their total shipment is only 350 MW, and I’d be very much wanting to believe that they can triple their production and installation capacity in 2 years time. That is also not so mention if their ’stabilized cell’ does not deteriorate in the following years. and it is a manufacturing cost, not sales and installation cost.

Everyone can be excited with the amount of capital pumped in Thin film PV, but the future is still far ahead. The good news is it is THERE!, it is MOVING!, it is GROWING!
Theoretical cost of it per watt peak of module is 30c (excluding substrate). If this to go down,… I WILL NOT CARE if the efficiency is 5%, if i can get 10c/Wp module, I will blanket my whole building , roof , windows with it! All i need is cable , no fuel for the next decade..!!
‘JUST KEEP THE SUN SHINING”

b. Wind
c. Nuclear

FA is where i started and slowly to come and approach TA and has been working quite well for me.

Is it possible to predict future from the ‘past/history’ ? , Well, it has been a debate and TA is not about predicting future from the past and TA is not a science as well.

In my defense, TA is probability theory based on price and volume movement. Some people, or most people purchase an equity based on their ‘mood/feeling’ or how fundamentally sound is the general and specific economy.
TA is about cutting your lost small and letting your profit to run.
-yes, you can still make money consistently although you are wrong most of the time.
-yes, you can still lose money consistently although you’re right most of the time.

With the current volatility in the market, the direction is unclear. I am still holding a view that this thing is just waiting to collapse. What will happen if I can get a job next year, I have no idea.
am I scared? Just like everyone, but whoever it is, the collapse may not be isolated.

Fed is still struggling to do ‘quick patch’ the economy, but they’re treating the ‘patient’ not healing. And at times like this, I am very very tempted to analyze the situation with FA.

I need to stay consistent with my analysis way… although the sector may be chosen with a little FA help

This post it on Fundamental Analysis;
Disclaimer: I do not normally post on FA, and any information is based on author’s assumption on the current market condition.

Dow Jones and S&P500 raised more than 7% in 2 trading days on last Thursday and Friday. With Fed pleading to inject and rescue the troubled financial market.

A number is out, $700-800 billion dollar, which equate to around 1750-2000 dollar/ citizen of US (assumed to be 400 million) to bail out those owners who cannot pay out their credit.

Do US Govt has the money? … Well, NO… and this will put a greater dependency to gulf/oil producing country , spore , china and japan as they’ll print MORE BONDS and Debt!

I bet they’re getting smarter as Chinese wants 49% of Morgan Stanley and Spore Temasek must be eyeing for better chunk of Merrill Lynch (unconfirmed).

Back the rise of US -stock. Has the confidence been restored?
I am very much doubt about it.

1. If i would have to speculate, I tend to believe that the FED is buying into the market to interfere as they also start to crack down on ’short’ selling of Hedge fund. Anyone in the right mind, will not resurrect and snap Citibank and push it up to 25%

2. AUD within less than 2 months goes from .98/USD to less than .80/USD!!, the interest rate merely change by a slight and AUD lost nearly 20% value. (good news to exporter and overseas student, and bad news for local OIL Price). While oil price has dropped 30% from its top nearly $150/barrel, due to 20% drop in AUD value, the price of oil on local pump is only down by a mere 10-12% to currently around $1.50/liter. Strengthening of USD indicate a flow out of capital as USD has been strengthening towards Euro as well.

3. Rise in commodity price. If Stock is not a safe place to park your capital, and cash is no more the king (anyone holding AUD will lose 20% value in less than 2 months). then they’d hide behind commodity price. OIL price jumps from $93-$94 to nearly $100 in 2 days, Gold price spikes up, and most of commodity like soybean, and metals is also up….

I have some sectors that I am quite bullish about in the future.. and I’ll make some suggestion (Disclaimer ON again) very soon. ….

Just now, I successfully run the OBV indicator again!… good.!…
I went to Borders today and get a book by Leon Wilson , Break-through trading. It looks quite good and hopefully there is some trading strategy i can pick up and tweak along the way.
I wont be reading it soon due to my load to university. but I’ll post any interesting find that i may have.

It is a TA book. the next sensible step is to build a ’sorting system’ to potentially sort tens of thousand of stocks in the market to trade.

I have not been able to post much of TA graph lately since my trading platform is having a problem with the OBV analysis.
As you may have already seen, I have used OBV to confirm the validity of a trend and to determine if the price rise and fall is distribution or accumulation.
I have been working on it for 3 days now…
Trying to delete alot of lines from the graph analysis due to it is saying error in connection. But the AD (accumulation and distribution) indicator works!!… hmm

See how bad… worst case i’ll call them in the morning.