What will we be left with?
Woh?? i sent it to you many many days …. weeksssss ago???
This global financial crisis is going to be bigger than 1998 asian financial crisis… MUCH BIGGER!
It is not a question of if the plane will crash , but how hard will it crash. Next year starting it is not a good year for anyone, not even for engineers, not for IT not for business or finance people especially. Last year, John and I agreed that It might be after US presidential election (Nov 2008) that the crash will start to happen, but It seems that they cannot hold it that longer. udah keburu ejakulasi dini istilahnya hahaha
There are a few sectors that will still grow,
1. renewable energy : solar, wind power, nuclear, and bio-fuel (because all those indian/ chinese coming out of village starting to realize that they want electricity + to produce more food and clothes and needs for those 2 billion people making transition to modern world)
2. Farm/Agriculture: Rice, soy bean, oil will remind quite steady because orang kampung start to taste how good the taste of KFC or fried food , they dont eat ikan kukus or ayam rebus anymore. they start realizing drinking soy bean and want to eat more toufu. and Rice taste better than Ubi or mantou hahaha…. so this thing will remain well.
3. Some Pharmaceutical: baby boomers (they who was born between 1940-1950, those baby was initially prepared for war , mother is making more kids because the country need them for world war. By now, they are about 50-60 years old, and they’ll retire soon. they wil need more medication. So with unhealthy diet that they are having now especially in US and europe, they need more medicine. so MORE MONEY for cancer , high cholesterol , etc etc
The rest,… Things will start to sound like this.
there are 3 kinds of major industries. Hulu, hilir and tengah.
a. hulu = perusahaan tambang, seperti BHP, ANTM, Exxon mobil, BP, Pertamina.
b. tengah = perusahaan pembuatan steel, seperti baosteel, buat besi batang lah, besi lempeng lah, besi baja dll
c. Hilir = perusahaan yang add value, car maker, bridge maker, computer casing maker , microwave/electronic maker
Nah, if the customers been hit and cannot pay their mortgage (tagihan utang rumah), start to feel the $4/gallon of oil is expensive, they’ll start reducing their needs. Plus, they see on the news top 5 of US investment firm , 4 goes bankcrupt. Jobless is high, they’ll start thinking, ok dont buy car…. ok dont buy new computer, ok dont buy this and that.
Kena hit the Hilir company (since last year, toyota, honda , GM and Ford has been reporting LOSS), now, rembet ke tengah….. and by next year, the hulu will be fucked too…
Why you didnt hear much in china and indonesia is because, indonesia is mostly perusahaan hulu. and china will feel it soon!, my friend in Gz start mentioning that the business start getting quiet. Stock market crash everywhere, in malaysia my friend said almost nobody on the shopping center.
For the rest… God speed!
on October 9th 2008 in FA